By Tony Hunter, Food Futurist
Generative AI is here and it’s just getting started. Exponential thinking, rather than our innate linear train
of thought, is taking shape.
Not long ago, Artificial Intelligence (AI) that is easily usable by the general public seemed like a far-distant possibility, decades away. Then on November 30, 2022, AI exploded onto the scene in the form of ChatGPT, seemingly from nowhere. Within five days of becoming publicly available, it had over one million users and the world would never be the same again.
And, let us be clear: we are talking about Generative AI, not traditional AI with its nice, neat tables of data that we have been using for decades. Traditional AI produces output from explicit rules determined by human programmers. Generative AI learns from the data it is trained on and, based on the patterns it finds, it produces novel output.
But for all its power, it can ‘hallucinate’, and human oversight will still be required for some time to come. AI stands for artificial intelligence; let us not confuse that with artificial wisdom.
As AI continues to advance, we now have a photorealistic video from OpenAI’s Sora video-generating AI. The videos are generated from a set of prompts, simple phrases, and the untouched raw output is extremely impressive. Every day brings new advances, we’ve just seen OpenAI release GPT-4o Mini, a more affordable AI model that outperforms its predecessor, GPT-3.5, but at a significantly lower price point.
“I believe we are living in the most exciting time to be in the food and ag industries that I have seen in over 30 years. And the rate of change will never be slower than it is today. ”
Tony Hunter, Future of Food Consulting
Understanding that AI is advancing exponentially is very important because we, humans, are naturally linear creatures. An hour is an hour, a week is a week, and a year is a year. We might sometimes feel that time passes faster or slower, but it does not. Humans are linear, but technology advances exponentially.
From this perspective, it is dangerous to think linearly in an exponential world. Because this is what happens. In Figure 1, we have a typical executive considering the future of their company, where they project where they thought the future would be. But where they ended up with exponential rather than linear growth is quite different. This is our exponential shock factor and is why thinking exponentially is essential in today’s rapidly advancing AI-powered world.
AI and our GLP-1 future
For decades, we have been telling people in industrialized countries to eat less or they will die of lifestyle-related diseases. Despite these warnings, the rates of obesity are rising worldwide, with obesity rates of 42 % in the US, 27 % in the UK and 32 % in Australia. Freely available calorie-
dense foods and their overconsumption are to blame, and it seems that, for whatever reason, many people cannot stop themselves from overindulging. This has led to the rise of GLP-1 and other diet drugs which mimic a hormone telling the brain we are full and don’t need to eat more food. Simplistically put, they lead to weight loss by suppressing appetite. According to Morgan Stanley research, this can lead to a 20 – 30 % reduction in daily calorie intake.
The effect of these drugs on people’s diets seems to almost magically result in a decrease in consumption of ‘unhealthy’ foods. Research by Morgan Stanley (figure 2) demonstrates these dietary changes with the ‘cookies and baked goods’ category suffering the third highest drop in frequency of consumption.
Whatever the reason for these differential consumption drops, could generative AI be used to develop new products that will still appeal to weight loss drug users as either healthy or indulgent alternatives? A major advantage is that it can consider numbers and combinations of ingredients beyond the human mind’s ability to comprehend. It can simultaneously optimize for multiple factors, including taste, price etc., and perhaps develop products that appeal to these consumers. While probably not AI-generated, Nestle1 developed a line of GLP-1 ‘companion’ products, a signal of what the future could hold.
“Companies will not be put out of business by generative AI, but by companies using generative AI, especially in NPD.”
Tony Hunter, Future of Food Consulting
Perhaps the future of New Product Development (NPD) will be Chat-NPD? This is what Swiss company Vivi Kola AG did with their VIVI Nova product. They used ChatGPT to formulate a vegan craft soda containing ingredients with added health benefits, develop a name and even design a label. All of this is said to have been achieved in only two days! Even allowing that this development time was spread over several weeks, it’s still a remarkable result. The drink is currently on sale at Migros supermarkets in Switzerland.
And we are seeing an ever-increasing application of generative AI in food NPD. We have Chile-based NotCo with their Giuseppe AI v2.0 developing plant-based consumer products and commercial applications, such as Ai Palette in Singapore integrating generative AI into their FoodGPT platform. At the moment, true generative AI-developed products like VIVI Nova are probably the exception rather than the rule, but point to the huge potential of generative AI.
Using generative AI, there may be some very novel diet-drug-friendly bakery products on the horizon.
The consumers of the future
Who will be the recipients of our generative AI-powered future?
As we know, everyone talks about Millennials or Gen Z. But, if we are looking to the future of 2030, 2040 and beyond, we need to be looking at the generation that comes after Gen Z: Gen Alpha. Some 2.8 million are being born every week and by the end of 2024, there will be 2 billion Gen Alphas on the planet, the biggest generation the planet has ever seen. They will represent nearly 25% of the global population.
A key thing to realize is that Gen Alpha and, to some extent, Gen Z, are not just digital natives, but technology natives. They have grown up with private companies launching rockets into space, mRNA vaccines, drones, dancing robots from Boston Dynamics and, probably in their lifetime, a colony on Mars! They will be the most technologically savvy generations to have existed, they have not known any other reality. For Gen Alpha, a digital component in any aspect of their lives is a given2. One study3 showed that 49 % of Gen Alphas own a tablet, but then transition to mobile phones in their teens. If technology is not present in an aspect of their lives, they will likely want to know why.
“Personalization is everywhere, whether we realize it or not! It is already in or coming to every facet of your life and food is definitely not going to be immune to this personalization megatrend.”
Tony Hunter, Future of Food Consulting
And research on Gen Z shows that they are likely to accept a much higher level of technology in the manufacture of their food than other generations. A consumer perception study4 showed that 77 % of Gen Z would try food made using technologies versus 67 % of millennials, with Gen X and boomers tied at 58 %. Imagine how Gen Alpha will view the use of technology in their food. Most likely, they’ll be even more accepting of technology being used to make their food and, as they age, their values will drive the long-term future of food.
Gen Alphas are a globe-spanning generation, so do not think that you just need to worry about the Alphas in your own country. Using their technology expertise, the trends that interest the Alphas can span the globe in days, hours, or even minutes. One only needs to look at the rise of K-pop and K-beauty to see the signals of how this new generation will operate.
What will our future consumers want?
So, what will our technology-native Gen Alpha consumers of 2030 and beyond want? I believe they will want personalization. Personalization is everywhere, whether we realize it or not!
If are subscribed to a streaming video or audio service, then you receive emails or messages on your screen about the movies you watched, and, based on those, recommendations for movies you might like; you like this song, you might like that song. Even our Google searches are personalized, and if you use Amazon or eBay, you get personalized selections sent to you all the time. It is already in, or coming to every facet of your life and food is definitely not going to be immune to this personalization megatrend.
As a result of this, the consumer of the future will want more than tasty fuel, they’ll want products that are good for their health and lifestyle. The days of classifying foods solely by daypart – breakfast, lunch, dinner and snacks, are gone. In addition, consumers now want event-based foods. In other words, what I want from breakfast tomorrow before my meeting with a potential new client is something to make me cognitively alert and help me perform well; quite different from what I want from my breakfast next week to help me relax while I am holidaying in St. Tropez.
This will be the key outcome of generative AI for consumers. It will make meaningful, real-time, consumer personalization of our food possible, due to its ability to analyze enormous amounts of health data from our smart health devices, and our genomic and microbiome data.
We will each have a personal ‘AI Shell’ surrounding us, powered by sensors and analyzed by our personal generative AI which interacts inwards with us and outwards with the world around us. Foods that do not suit us will not make it inside the shell, so baked goods will need to meet individuals’ needs whatever their diet, or diet drug, of choice.
The future
Generative AI and other technologies are here to stay, whether we like it or not. The bakery industry needs to keep up with these changes or risk long-term irrelevancy, especially in a diet-drug future. Generative AI is moving at an exponential pace and, if companies do not have it in their NPD strategy within the next 6 – 12 months, they will end up like our friend earlier and experience the exponential shock factor. Companies will not be put out of business by generative AI, but by companies using generative AI, especially in NPD.
But companies that do adopt an exponential mindset do not need to fear generative AI-driven change or the future. Adopting this mindset enables organizations to react to change with adaptability, agility and flexibility, gain a competitive advantage, and thrive no matter what the future holds.
Tony Hunter, Future of Food Consulting
Tony Hunter is a strategic foresight consultant, Food Futurist Speaker, food scientist, and author specializing in the Future of Food and Agriculture. He speaks globally on the technology and consumer trends shaping the rapidly changing food and ag sectors.
He advises global food companies on these trends and their industry impact, as well as VC investors and the top four global consulting companies.
His distinctive combination of scientific qualifications, business experience and detailed understanding of food technologies allows him to deliver a unique perspective on the Future of Food. www.tonyhunterspeaker.com and www.futuristforfood.com