Innova’s 360 research into bakery industry trends highlights product launches, market insights, and what may develop in the future. Globally, consumers are drawn to ingredients like ancient and alternative grains, flax and sourdough in the global bakery market due to their perceived health benefits, authenticity, and alignment with modern wellness trends.
Alternative and ancient grains (AAG) have experienced steady growth in the global bakery market, with a 3% CAGR over the past five years, according to the research: the growth aligns with the overall 4% rise in bakery launches. West Europe leads in launches for this segment, while Asia shows the fastest growth over the past year.
Sourdough launches have increased by 4% during the same period. Half of AAG launches contain only alternative grains and no ancient grains over the past year, Innova notes. Bread has the highest percentage of launches with AAG grains, while baking ingredients and mixes have the highest growth. Vegan claims are also rising rapidly, with 1 in 4 AAG bakery launches displaying this claim, reflecting the growing demand for plant-based options.
Bakery trends
In the global AAG bakery market, consumers increasingly focus on front-label information to identify specific ancient or alternative grains. Innova identified this trend, which it called ‘Ingredients: Taking the Spotlight’.
Claims around sustainability are also on the rise. Practices related to sustainability (i.e., regenerative farming, water reduction, and recycled packaging) align with the ‘Nurturing Nature’ trend.
The ‘Plant-Based: The Rise of Applied Offerings’ trend is reflected in brands highlighting plant-based and vegan ingredients on packaging and in marketing.
“In the AAG bakery industry, healthy grains can be infused with comforting and indulgent flavors. This highlights the ‘Indulging in health’ trend, where health brands move into indulgence while comforting treats come with added goodness,” Innova highlights.
Sourdough trends
Sourdough grew by a CAGR of 10% in launches over the past five years. The percentage of AAG launches with sourdough increased from 14% in 2018 to 20% in 2023. Nearly 8 in 10 sourdough launches are in Europe, although the Americas and other regions are experiencing faster growth. Sourdough grows as a percentage of AAG launches in all bakery subcategories. However, sourdough launches are less likely to have health and clean label claims than total AAG bakery items, Innova finds.
Ancient grains trends
Ancient grains have been featured in nearly half of AAG bakery launches, slowly growing at a 1% CAGR over the past five years. Chia seeds, sorghum and buckwheat ancient grains have seen an increase in launches during the same period. More than half of ancient grains launches are in sweet biscuits/cookies and bread, while the highest growth is in baking ingredients/mixes. The regional focus varies by grain, with buckwheat leading in Europe, chia in the Americas, and sorghum in other regions. Ancient grain launches are more likely to have fiber, clean label, and vegan claims compared to overall AAG bakery products.
Forecast
Ethical and environmental claims in the AAG bakery industry have nearly doubled, rising from 4% to 7% of launches in the past year. Innova expects this growth to continue as brands increasingly focus on sustainable farming and manufacturing practices to align with corporate sustainability goals. Brands can benefit from claims such as no additives or preservatives, high protein, healthier natural sweeteners, or no added sugar claims.
The trends are part of Innova’s Trending in Alternative Grains & Flours in Bakery Products in Europe report.
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